An Atlanta actuarial firm says both presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama “can reasonably be expected to serve two full terms in good health.”

But just barely.

The 30-year-old Bragg actuarial company, which specializes in morbidity and mortality calculations, gives 71-year-old McCain a “healthy expectancy” of 8.4 years, taking into account his four bouts with melanoma of the skin.

Barack Obama, who turned 47 today, can expect 21.9 years of good health — a forecast shortened by 10 percent or so by his history of cigarette smoking.

“Either candidate can be expected to serve two full terms, without age or health being an issue,” said John M. Bragg, the firm chairman.

The company drew a distinction “health expectancy” and the more usual term “life expectancy.”

“In this analysis, ‘healthy’ means the person does not require the care provided by an assisted living facility and is free of Alzheimer’s disease,” Bragg said.

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